There still are about 10 electoral votes available in two states tied in the polls (Ark & N.H.) and who knows what's going to happen in Colorado with their vote on splitting their electors. Add to that another 96 electoral votes which are in states with poll numbers well within the margin of error, only "barely" supporting either candidate (the kind of support where a nasty rainstorm in key cities could throw the election either way).

This thing is FAR from over. Another 172 votes could shift in states with "weak" leanings if there are dramatic developments in the next couple of weeks. Regardless, I sure like the color of this map of things as they stand today

(size of state weighted for electoral vote count)

Reference: Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 Map info Here

. . . in a bar full of Michigan fans this afternoon:

"If Bush doesnt even know he owns a lumber company, no wonder he bankrupted two oil companies."

I wish I said it, but it came for an officer in the local Iron Worker's Union....

Got Wood?

FactCheck.ORG: Distortions Galore at Second Presidential Debate

Bush's Timber-Growing Company

Bush got a laugh when he scoffed at Kerry's contention that he had received $84 from "a timber company." Said Bush, "I own a timber company? That's news to me."

In fact, according to his 2003 financial disclosure form,Bush does own part interest in "LSTF, LLC", a limited-liability company organized "for the purpose of the production of trees for commercial sales." (and they have the "supporting documents".)

So Bush was wrong to suggest that he doesn't have ownership of a timber company. And Kerry was correct in saying that Bush's definition of "small business" is so broad that Bush himself would have qualified as a "small business" in 2001 by virtue of the $84 in business income.

He cuts down trees, he wears high heels, suspenies and a Bra....

AND . . . POTUS DID underfund No Child Left Behind by $28 Million . . .

AND . . . Bush's Drug Discount Cards for seniors are not working nearly as well as originally advertised. . . . despite the Preznit's "hard work."

AND . . . there is some truth to Kerry's comment about Bush forcing General Khinseki's retirement, but he wasn't outright fired for saying that "several hundred soldiers" would be required for the occupation of Iraq.

AND . . . It was Bush who "shows a lack of understanding. When he said, "Doctors practice defensive medicine because of all the frivolous lawsuits that cost our government $28 billion a year."

That was "Bunk" Kery was right that the numbers were hacked together by Bush's campaign staff. The GAO and CBO both concluded that the claim was fiction: “no evidence that restrictions on tort liability reduce medical spending.”

But we do love to bash lawyers, don't we. Americans seem to buy Bush's lie on this as if it were gospel.

AND . . . Although the numbers may be revised later and Kerry was quoting "private sector" jobs and not overall payroll jobs, Kerry may turn out to be correct when he said Bush would be "the first president in 72 years to lose jobs."

AND . . . Bush's attack on Kerry's Health care plan was grossly misleading

THERE ARE MORE dubious claims listed at FactCheck Dot Whatever

Did we just witness the end of the town hall format, or a demand for more of them?

Pundit Guy, via Instapundit "I think tonight, we saw the death of the town hall meeting format."
* * *
"It's my opinion that no one has done that effectively since Bill [Clinton]'s last debate in 1996".

And if the online polls don't mean anything, then why mention them except that they are there, so why have them, unless they mean something. Vote Early, Vote often. Delete your cookies and repeat.

Joe Trippi on Hardball: (also via Instapundit) The online polls aren't scientific, but the fact that Kerry's winning proves he's ahead. He thinks the town hall format was a big success. I'm inclined to agree with him about that latter point -- though I don't know how town-hallish this really was. But I think it was a good debate.

My take was written first (and probably better) by Electablog's Dave Pell (the expert).

The American media lost.

The questions asked by the citizen-interviewers were better than any questions I've heard asked in the past debates. They were dead-on and to the point. Charles Gibson's rare follow-ups were either off the point or useless. This was a huge win for the American voter . . .

Just watching the zoo at "spin alley" makes you certain that there must be a better way to select the leader of the free world.

All right, I'm back off the road, infused with caffeine jitters and ready to try and blog the d-bate as it comes across my TV, I'll be switching to C-SPAN in 24 minutes.

Nice to see Laura Bush be true to her word and wore blue as promised.

Everyone in the audience might be THE one, or one of several actually, who gets to ask a question, so Gibson sets them up like Oprah jingling car keys to practice.  The anticipation can be cut with a forged memo. . .

"Cuticle" Carl Cameron from FOX has a memo from ABC saying that (basically) since Bush is a serial liar, his spin will be given greater scrutiny.  Brit Hume wonders if it's forged, there will be much more on this crap.  (Good for ABC if it's true, FOX has no shame, why should ABC.

This has got to be an attempt to deflect the anticipated disaster Bush will present after such an unimaginably bad week for his administration, by impuning ABC's Charles Gibson's credibility.  Already before the lights go on, the GOP is calling foul.

Wishy washy question for Kerry:  Kerry's downright charming, smiles like an expert assassin sticking the knife in the "weapons of mass distraction."
Bush's rebuttle,   Usual meme but decently delivered.

WMD justification for Bush's Iraq invasion and how does it play with N. Korea.  Bush seems at ease, and that each situation is different, calling for inconsistency?  He just went on and on about how Preznitin' is tough and you need to be consistent.  WTF?  He is comfortable and smooth. 
Kerry rebutts, Kery getting steamed early, or is that just forceful?
Bush just frickin LIED dammit.  Saddam had no weapons to give to the terrorists he wasn't talking to.  And Kerry called him on it.

Bugging out question for Kerry.
Bush is Sneering.  There's just no other way to describe it.  Kerry has new quotes, good info and logic, Bush counters with more of the same talking points.  This song and dance is lame.

They've almost reached the point of shouting at each other, and it's real early.

Good question for Bush, how are you going to fix our broken alliances.  He compared himself with Reagan, I hope Kerry reminds him what a diplomat his father was.  Bush doesn't answer the question but only justifies why he screwed things up, not how he'll fix it.
Kerry calmed down,   Broken promises in a rush to war.  Bush is rightfully indignant but not over the top.


Kerry question on Iran nukes.  Nice start, the UN isn't the only thing to rely on, nice.  The rest is a repeat of the last debate meme's on N. Korea.
Lame scowel joke from Bush.  "I get it."  Bush saying Kerry is "Naive and dangerous" "making progress," blah blah blah...

Bush:  Draft rumors on Internet-S??  Dufass.  A real promise of no draft from Bush.  That's new.
Kerry and the "backdoor draft," and adding 40K soldiers and not go alone.
Bush is just interrupting, he's losing it.
Kerry strides "presidentially" and getting even more secure, he knows Bush just lost this thing.

Kerry security question: Getting the terrorists "over there" means the best intelligence, which means cooperation, ties in homeland security and Bush's ponzie scheme tax plan, all in one.  Well done.  Who cares what happened in 1993.

DOMESTIC
Canada Drugs.  Aren't Safe?  So much for not denigrating allies.  OO, but wait til December, he might let them in.  Riight.  Was that an anticipatory flip/flop?
Kerry calls Bush a liar again.  The President DID block it according to Kerry.  Kerry makes the nice point of Bush being the champion of corporate welfare.  Bush blames Clinton, bahahaha.

Trial Lawyers question for Kerry who points to a real web site to see his tort reform plan.  Lawyers fixing lawyers problems.  It really does work, just nobody will trust it.
Bush jumps on Kerry's liberalism.  Tax and spend meme from the spend and spend Preznit.
Kerry is amused, not grimacing. Taking a Dispassionate Liberal stance against the "compassionate conservative." 
Bush take another swing at the trial lawyer on the ticket and swaggars off like a gorrilla.  "Top that ya whimp." He's repugnant.

NO VETO question for Bush.  Preznitin' cost a lot.........especially when you cut taxes.
Kerry clarrifies his "liberal" health care plan.  Bush opened the door on jobs, silly boy.  Kerry doesn't hesitate to pounce.  Bush is struggling to remember not to roll his eyes or grit his teeth, and failing. . . . ENROOOOOooonnnn.  It echos.

No tax raise question.  Kerry was just given a gift of a question, "straight into the camera."  Where is the fact checking on Kerry breaking the balance budget 200 times, and more checking needs done on the "green eye shades???"  We're down to only 98 votes against fiscal responsibility, isn't that down from 350?
Kerry:  Fuzzy math, I remember that.  Didn't work last time either.

Environment question for Bush. Hmmm, Kerry should eat this one for dinner.  Bush does sound credible, but . . .
Kerry on Bush's Orwellian fantasy.  Blinded Bush with science, but  Kyoto plays to Bush.  But Kerry rebounds  nicely.

Competitive Manufacturing question for Kerry.   Lou Dobbs parroting outsourcing answer, but it has appeal.  Other than closing the loophole on outsourcing companies, I don't think he answers the question.
Bush follows the thread and never gets back to fixing the PROBLEM IN OHIO and elsewhere OF THE LOSS OF MANUFACTURING JOBS. 
Bush back on fricking tax cuts,  Please someone hit the buzzer....
Gibson calls Kerry on his non-response.  Kerry merely says he can't fis it all but wants to level the playing field, which seems at least honest.
Fact-check the little tyrant on his timber company he doesn't even know he owns (nice joke about it though).  Kerry could not have just pulled that out of the ether.

Patriot Act Question for Bush.  He defends the act well, but doesn't relieve any worries by the guy who asked the quesiton judging by his reaction.
Kerry loves to hate Ashcroft.  Tin hats with facts.

Stem Cell next for Kerry, Nap time.  Oops, name dropping Superman will wake anybody up. 
Bush handles this question better than anything I've seen, but Kerry steps on the waffle line and rubs it away.

FINALLY someone brings up the Supreme Court in this Campaign.  I hate Strick Constructionists and Bush wants them on the bench.  Esototeric I know but Bush is way out of his league in this, citing Dred Scott?  Wrong case at the wrong time for the wrong reasons -- overturned by an "activist" court.  Read a damn book once in a while George.  Any 1st year law student could rip that argument apart.
Kerry (wisely probably) doesn't argue just how idiotic Bush sounds talking about case law.  He quotes Bush wanting more conservative judges and scores with this former law student.  Opinions should be politics neutral, something lacking in since Renquist took over.

And Kerry gets a chance to "explain" his abortion position.  Always a thicket for us liberals.  He does alright but changes no minds on this.  Not because his answer didn't grok, it did and was excellent, but becasue those that care about this issue made up their minds whether they would vote "D" or "R" years ago.
It figures that Bush doesn't get it.  And touting his record doesn't do anything but really get the hackles up of anyone tired of Government legislating culture.  That would be me.
Kerry lectures Bush so the Idjit understands. Bush only gets things if they are black or white

FINAL QUESITON IS A WHOPPER.  Name not just one, but THREE mistakes, hehehe he can't come up with anything wrong, only that Iraq was right (dag gonnit!)

Appointment mistakes?? No names?  Um, O'Neil comes to (his?) mind, Bremmer maybe, personally I would say RUMSFELD

Can Kerry keep it down to three.  Gut check?  Was this war a last resort? 
$87 Million again, what a jerk, the question was about YOUR mistakes Mr, President.
Kerry repeats defense from last debate (mistake in talking about the war, versus a mistake going to war) and gets the last word by (finally) mentioining CheneyBurton!  Yeah!!

Summations:   Kery on the stump, live.  Bush on the stump, likable.


Bush will be the toast of St, Louis because his head didn't explode.  But Kerry certainly looks more "presidential."

LET THE SPIN BEGIN (I'm reserving the right to fix my typos, but otherwise it was fun)

Gone to Cleveland for the day, hope to be back by the debates, but if not, hit the online polls for me. Kos or Atrios should have them up.

Vote early and vote often.

That's what I would do. I haven't weighed in on Tom's Troubles. Hardly a surprise that I find him repugnant, but I also think Nancy Pelosi is repulsively nagging and nasty. I know I wouldn't hesitate to tell her to shut up and sit step down if the ethic committee came down on her like they did on DeLay yesterday. If Congressmen were held to the same standard as lawyers, or judges, he would be fighting disbarrment proceedings for fostering the mere appearance of impropriety, a sanctionable offense for the bar.

Not that DeLay received a real "behind the woodshed" spanking, nor do I have enough facts in hand (nor care to find out) if he deserved more or less of a punishment. But it was, in the words of Joe Gandelman, "a SIGNIFICANT series of rebukes." I do think his response was inappropriately smug and belligerant when a bi-partisan committee reaches a unanimous decision that he be reprimanded. Niether juries or voters forgive and forget arrogance. Maybe he is the perfect choice for majority leader when you think about it.

When you have to be reelected every two years, you would think you'd be more circumspect. He may be in a "safe" district this November (after all the gerrymandering he did it would be supreme irony if he weren't) but you'd think that a plausible/respectable republican could make a decent challenge against him next go-round in the primaries if he wins this time.

I was disgusted with Mary Rose Oakar's scandalous behavior in the early '90's. I lived in Louis Stoke's district in the Cleveland area at the time, now represented very well by one of the first Judges I ever appeared before, Stephanie Tubbs Jones. But across the river, Mary Rose was every bit the liberal democrat icon that is now embodied by the current rep of the district, Dennis Kucinich. Needless to say, that seat is "safe" for Democrats.

The district hats [sic] a strong Democratic tilt. However, in '92, Republican Martin Hoke defeated incumbent Cong. Mary Rose Oakar (D) in a bloody battle. Oakar, an eight-termer, had been nailed with 213 over-drafts at the House hank and had been embroiled in a dispute arising out of the post office scandal. Her brash and aggressive personality was wearing thin on her constituency, which even showed in the Democratic primary that year when she won renomination by a slim 39-30 percent margin. Relying too heavily on labor in the general election, Oakar went down in flames when voters put Hoke in office with 57 percent of the vote. The same year, Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in the district by five points. Ohio's Comeback Kid

If history is any indicator, DeLay's days are numbered. The ultimate jury is the electorate. Like any jury, they determine facts despite spin and mete out punishment.

Kicking ass "reproduces" the DNC's gracious acceptance of Senior Bush Strategist Matt Dowd's invitation to talk about Halliburton every day until election day in this memo:

Subject: Historic Halliburton Chats

The RNC surely will get back to us after checking their calendar while the DNC will set up a conference call for tomorrow so we can kick off our daily Halliburton chats.

...what time works best for you. Below are some times that work for us.


ALL DAY LONG

Heh, Bring it on.

The Associated Press has had two strange stories today:

This first via StopDemocrats.com (screenshot)  was briefly up and running then taken down, but not before Political Wire and Atrios saw it and spread the news to the world that Bush not only already won the election four weeks from now, but it was a landslide.  Not only that, his coattails were huge, solidifying the GOP stranglehold on congress.

The second AP story is picked up by virtually everyone, and hopefully has more validity and will prove the lie of the first bogus story four weeks hence.:  AP Poll: Kerry Takes Small Lead Over Bush Via Talk Left, Atrios again (which no cognitive dissonence whatsoever),  every news source there is.

UPDATE" Daily Kos has the correction

Correction: President Bush Did Not Win Election on October 7

Whew, I hope the corrected version is the "correct version."

NOW IN OHIO TOO:

Pandagon says: It's Over!

It's Over!

Ohio's election results, four weeks early, behind the cut:

Jesse Taylor has the whole story of how Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is merely practicing to turn Ohio '04 into Florida 2000. COMPLETE WITH A SCREENSHOT of republicans winning every contested election statewide.

John Furie Zacharias' cartoon analogy might just have it right on picking your hero.

Don't forget to listen to the Bush/Brando debate at the end of the post.