Off to Cleveland and parts east the next couple of days. Here's my wrap-up of the Debate spin posted elsewhere and reproduced here.

Tell me what you think: At Ara Rubyan's

Poland? (I really love the Daily Show) Didn't Bush learn anything when Gerald Ford lost a debate by insisting on bringing up Poland?

Kerry did go astray on bringing up Kyoto and Bush zinged him with the Global Approval stuff. Kerry was lost in the forest, had something important to say but didn't say it the way he wanted to.

Bush did well explaining his rationale for the 6-party talks with N.Korea, even though it was complete horseshit. Kerry picked up very well on Bush's aside on Iran and then told the "real story" which brought Kerry back from the forest and he DID say he wanted "both" bi-lateral and I can only assume he still wanted to continue the current multi-lateral talks -- but he didn't seem to say so. He only concentrated on the 2-way talks and Bush grabbed that up saying they 6-way talks would then unravel.

Bush got my mom to go along with that one. Kerry was prepared for Iraq, but blew Korea, but MS and the spinners only hammer their script which only has a paragraph on Korea (much like the campaigns themselves) and several chapters on Iraq.

Once again Bush makes the point that you have to keep with him because he's screwed things up so baddly that there's no undoing his mess, just seeing it through. And is mind-boggingly effective and sincere doing it.

C-SPAN had the best coverage with their split-screen. Indespensible for the all important second opinion on the replay. Fox's network feed worked decidedly against Bush by catching Kerry's serious note taking and Bush with that weird smirk. On C-SPAN you see Kerry smirking too, and at times whole-heartedly agreeing with Bush, and some smugness that the other networks didn't show.

MSM believed the ABC, CBS and CNN insta-polls, which gave Kerry the overwhelming edge. Therefore (notice -- not because) Kerry was more prepared, less angry, his canpaign doing better for this all-important event, and they're liking the underdog getting back in the race (as if he was out of it), able to shake the flipper lable.

Does that answer the question Professor Rubyan? How about the quip repeated on CNN's morning show: "Bush brought 30 minutes of material to a 90 minute debate." "Mexed messages," in case you didn't catch the talking point repeated 12 times. Gloss: Kerry -- professional, in command, presidential, all but out of it saves his ass; Bush -- think meaner Dan Quale without substance.

Tee Hee, they go with a free-for-all and then domestic policy next with fewer expected viewers. Kerry will be expected to surge.

My first opinion was seen through my partisan lens and experience from my college forensics team which discounts Bush on substance and had no doubt Kerry won on style. Second look and quick perusal of conventional wisdom comfirmed first look, but closer exam saw missed opportunities for a complete slam dunk by Kerry and Bush spin team missing the Korea point completely which resinated with at least one member of the "Greatest Generation" in my household.

MSM (and Blogtopia) has decided Iraq was the only issue and Kerry is sharpening his message more every day on that. And he knows how to grab and keep Bush close during their hand-shake to show their size difference in a quick photo-op. Watch MSM to look for Bush to get even testier next time, hoping for a Bush melt-down.

And at Rosemary's:

He forgot Poland. Geez Rose, you of all people should have been proud of Bush picking up on that serious gaff by Kerry and Bush hamering him on it more than once. Our great number two ally!!

Q.: How many Polish Prime Ministers does it take to make George Bush look like a liar?

A.: Same as it takes to screw in a light bulb -- because despite all the jokes, Poles really aren't dumbasses -- Just One.

"They deceived us about the weapons of mass destruction, that's true. We were taken for a ride."

"I thought Bush scored very nice points on reminding Kerry about the Polish Brigade, but I couldn't help remembering how this nation was Gerald Ford's undoing at his debate against Carter.

I really wonder if it will play at all.

As an excersize in forensics, Kerry severly crushed POTUS. The polls and pundits give Kerry the edge on style if not substance. As for getting anyone to change their mind -- of the few truly undecideds out there who bothered to watch -- which is all that really matters, Kerry certainly swayed more people than Bush.

As for the griping about no details on the plan, just how disingenuous is it to expect that in 90 seconds? You guys are bloggers, true participants in the process. You've know what the plan is and where to find it and also know that Kerry's last two speeches address in specific detail first Iraq then the larger WoT. They were bullet points, with details, that will take about 30 minutes to fully vet and at least 5 minutes merely to list.

Do you really prefer a complex foreign policy to fit on a bumper-sticker? Why then do you go to the trouble to use the net at all? This is a medium where time and length restraints are anathama. That critique is spin and if you really are serious about what is good for this country -- instead of merely playing spectator and rooting for your team -- you know better.

Or is it more important to expose the source of Kerry's tan and wrinkle-free forehead?

It is my fervent hope that America is smarter than that, but I've been disappointed before.

Rosemary blogged her response here:

Maybe not a slam dunk, but he certainly scored, and judging by pre-debate spin, it was from three-point land.

Prove me wrong.

POST SPIN SPIN,

After watching the only important post-debate programing: The Daily Show, I can say with certainty that the defining moment of this debate will be the Poland issue. Poland, why is it always Poland? Poland was Gerald Ford's undoing. It will be the same for Bush.

But what about Poland. . . You forgot Poland. . . You can't denigrate Poland.

Q.: How many Polish Prime Ministers does it take to make George Bush look like a liar?

A.: Just One.

"They deceived us about the weapons of mass destruction, that's true. We were taken for a ride."

You may want to lament the lack of honest debates, harkening back to the days of Lincoln and Douglas. But those days are long dead and so is anyone who might have remembered that famous contest.

Both camps have agreed to an elaborate, 32-page contract that spells out everything from the size of the dressing rooms to permitted camera angles.

NPR's Connie Rice presents theTop 10 Secrets They Don't Want You to Know About the Debates

You might correctly object to all the political "theater." But just remember, this is the best political theater money can buy.

fenriq at Metafilter wonders

Is there a link between today's headline: Baghdad Car Bombs Kill 34 Children Receiving Sweets (from American troops) and this Wall Street Journal front page article from September 22th?

"Capt. Ayers took lessons from his fellow captains. In April, Capt. Jesse Beaudin convinced a friend from the U.S. to send backpacks, notebooks and pencils for schoolchildren. Kids mobbed troops for the goods whenever they went out on patrol. "The kids provided security. No one attacked us when we were surrounded by children," Capt. Beaudin says. After hearing about this tactic at the dining hall, Capt. Ayers's men also wrote home requesting school supplies." Non-subscribers can read the WSJ article here

My god, if there's anything to this, we've lost al chance of any cooperation from the citizens of Iraq in pacifying the ocuntry. As if there was anyone left supporting us there after abu Ghraib.

CBS reported (yes I know, but someone has to watch Dan -- I rarely did until recently, but I feel sorry for the guy) that the soldiers were giving out candy to the kids, which is why so many of them were there at the sewage treatment plant's opening ceremony.

I'm really beyond looking for any irony here. Kids in Russia, kids in Iraq. Bush really needs to stop fucking around and might as well go nu-ku-leer, or at least triple our boots on the ground. That, or get the fuck out.

A lot of debate live-blogging going on tonight.  Mind you the Associated Press has done most of the hard work, right in line with the Daily Show's template.

More than mere insta-analysis or blog-o-spin, but a chance for all us wanna-be pundits to set down first impressions in the indellible cyber-stone.  Be sure to add your impressions so we can see how they compare to this evening's spin meisters, tomorrow's op-eds, Friday's non-news and docu-dump (who knows what they'll come up with this time . . . but they will) Saturday's poll results and of course the final word on the Sunday Talking Heads' programs.  Final that is until the campaigns evaluate the way the wind is going, and start spinning what will happen at the next debate.

For live-blogging, I plan of stopping by and harrassing Pandagon, among others. and probably doing a post debate wrap-up, including impressions of the live-blogging.

Naturally, Atrios and Kos will be at it.  I suspect Kevin Drum will too, but he hasn't said so.  Talk Left has a mole on the scene -- a UM student named Tyler whose room was searched by Secret Service this morning.  Kicking Ass  has thinks there will be nothing really to see, but knows it will be more fun if we play Bush Debate Bingo.

Actually it's more fun to check out the conservative Blogistan for predictions which are mutually exclusive.  These guys have been dreading this thing for a while, expecially after they got a bounce last month and were hoping to ride it to November.  Sorry Charley, but what matters is that the Kerry Campaign Wins the Expectations Game.

ADDEMDUM: a real Hoot from Hal!Hellblazer Exclusive: Debate Preview From The Future

UPDATE: Kevin's Political Animal will indeed be live-blogging the debates. But has an even better (or at least more productive) game for us bloggers to try: Debate Fact Checking"

DEBATE FACT CHECKING....Dan Froomkin of the Washington Post wants bloggers to form a gigantic decentralized fact checking consortium for tonight's debate.

The House has passed a bill making the oak tree our national tree. Pandagon reports. They really must have nothing to do.

That's not the half of it. They spent an hour inducting Duke Ellington into the Jazz Hall of Fame, which really intruded on my nap-time as I dozed to C-SPAN.

Jesse and I really need lives, or maybe living in Ohio has simply rotted our brains.

I guess though, this is reporting what the Daily Show calls "actual news" because while the MSM is busy fitting events into their preconceived notions and issuing sound bytes, analyzing what actually happens" is what bloggers are for." (Love it)

So in the (what will someday be) the traditional blogger's role, you will also learn from this site that today:

• The Senate decided to "DeLay" debate over an amendment requiring top level intelligence department heads to report to the new National Intelligence Director (NID) any dissent or additions they might have with an intelligence estimate -- who will then pass those opinions along contemporaneously with any report to be given to the President or the National Security Committee or Congress [yawn]
  
  
• The House (which under Tom DeLay's management is merely a GOP sound byte factory) managed to resurrect the wedge issue of the (already dead) Gay Marriage Amendment which lost in the Senate earlier this summer.

So, while the candidates, their entourage of sycophants, advisers, security and press take up all the available hotel space in Miami -- kicking out refugees from the hurricanes -- Congress honored a tree and a musician that has been dead for 30 years, got stalled on minutia instead of implementing the 9/11 commission's recommendations, and made time for some pure partisan bickering.

Nothing to do? They were busy as hell doing absolutely nothing.

You should read the entire article by Gautam Adhikari of the neo-con store front operation at American Enterprise Institute. Dr Adhidari has artibulated the liberal view of the Iraq conflict like a true believer, and somehow got AEI to publish and endorse it.

This is more than rethinking their position based on facts on the ground. It is an about-face. Here is the conclusion reached by Dr. Adhidari:

If the United States wants to reassert itself as a widely accepted, and respected, leader of the democratic world, it will have to carry the world with it. Its efforts will fail if it continues to believe it can wield unilateral power indefinitely in a unipolar world.

Quite interesting, and good advice to boot. Best thing I've read from that think tank since Kraouthammer defined the "Commercial Republic." Hat Tip Media Matt

After reading this Knight Ridder article, which is something I have been saying for months, consider yourself an intellectually diahonest partisan if you say you don't know where Kerry stands on Iraq.

ie. if you call Kerry a Flipper again, you are willfully lying, a pathetic partisan.

He has had "one position" on Iraq, period.

If you are serious about this, about the record of the man who just might be your new president, why are you listening to the used car salesman telling you he has the best deal. Why aren't you doing your own homework, consulting your own "mechanics" as it were, or shopping the competition for yourself?

While Bush and Cheney travel on their stand-up comedy tour joking about the latest snark the boys in the back room came up with to smear Senator Kerry, people are dying in a far off land in your name at their order. Nyuk, nyuk, funny, huh?

And things aren't getting any better, despite the administration's one-liners. More importantly, the administration has even stated that they have absolutely no intention of changing a thing they are doing, that they are on the "right track," and have made no mistakes. Juan Cole said it so well:

When you are deep in a hole, the first rule is to stop digging.

if things don't turn around, and they will only do so if Bush, Inc. has some kind of epiphany or John Kerry wins the election, you can count on another one of these.

Defective, ineffective, Crawford, Texas is recalling their aWol villiage idiot.

The aptly named Lone Star Iconoclast of George W. Bush's hometown has endorsed John Kerry for President. The weekly newspaper with a circulation of 1,000 says that the President "let us down."

With the news being spread by The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Associated Press, the BBC and ABC News picking up on the story, as well as bloggers like Ezra Klein and Taegan Goddard (and of course yours truly), I'll bet their circulation will be going into at least second run. As it stands, their website is overloaded, try later.

Meanwhile, this blog notes with mixed emotion that Ralph Nadar will not be on the ballot in Ohio because of the 15,000 signatures submitted on his behalf by Nader's (Republican) backers -- the Florida petition-gathering firm JSM Inc., Ohio's (Republican) Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell certified only 3,708 valid, where 5,000 were needed. The vast majority of petitions were invalidated due to forged signatures. (I guess Ken didn't get the memo. Maybe like the hundreds of urban area voter registration cards he trashed, it was also written on the wrong card stock)

Ralph (predictably) is suing to get on anyway and Blackwell may launch an investigation. I mean, really. That many bogus signatures? We were able to get more valid ones in just the city limits of Toledo to amend the smoking ban. I'm somewhere between feeling this is pathetic and it's awesome.

That's what John Kerry needs to tell the American people Thursday at the debates. Rod at Proof Through the Night reminds Kerry that he went to law school for a reason, to argue his case to a jury effectively. He should be able to use his gifts to impart on the American public that everything said by George W. Bush is BULL.

I've said time and again that that we stopped being an electorate long ago. We are a jury sitting in judgment over the excesses of the Bush administration. They will not stand trial for starting an illegal war, abuse of prisoners who in many cases had no business being in custody, or the piracy they plan as the booty of their conquest.

John Kerry has a chance to play prosecutor again against these unaccountable tools of corporate barons using war and deception to expand the imperial ambitions of their commercial republic.