Our friends at Electoral-vote.com have upgraded their servers and tweaked their methodology a bit, providing for the historical 2:1 break for challengers by undecided voters. This latest compiles 41 different polls and I have plugged the results into my map with the size of the state weighted for number of electoral votes available. There are no absolute ties with all this data crunched, but many states are still within a whisker.

Note that in the 7 out of 16 "swing states" where Bush is up are all within the margin of error -- statistical ties; and Kerry's leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, solidly in Kerry's corner.

Mind you that winning the "big three" swingers: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, looks pretty optimistic for the Kerry camp. A sweep would be nice but only two out of three will do it. Pennsylvania looks solid blue, however Ohio still is shaky but trending in the right way. Florida is still Flori-DUH in my opinion until I'm proven wrong. Stories of voter fraud still haunts the Sunshine State and are becoming disturbingly commonplace here in the Buckeye State. (See previous post about CrackHead Chad for example.

Predicted Election Results:
Kerry 311 Bush 227

Click for Larger Image
(size of state weighted for electoral vote count)

Reference: Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
My Map info Here

ADENDUM: Mystery Pollster has an excellent analysis of what the hell is up with Ohio and why the various polls are remarkedly consistent (despite their being "reported" as being all over the place).