WASHINGTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, Ohio Republican Rep. Michael Oxley, could announce his retirement as early as Tuesday, sources close to the congressman said on Monday.

Reference:  Reuters.com

Oxley represents that wide open swath of territory betwwn Findlay and Mansfield, norwest of Columbus between Interstate-75 and I-71. He's been entrenched there since 1981. My son was born in '81 and he's voted in two Congressional elections to give you some perspective on how long it's been since this district was Oxley's fiefdom.

This District's election results have forvored the GOP incumbant, often by more than a two to one margin, every time he ran. In fact, the last time a Democrat was elected from there was 1936. Only four men, all Republicans, have represented the district for 70 years.

This my friends is the very definition of Republican Stronghold.  It will certainly be an indication of whether Howard Dean et al. are serious about running competitive races in every district because if you look at the data, and the mood of the country, this one is ripe for the picking with Oxley out.

Trends!

Last year Oxley's margin of victory was lowest of his career, although 59% is nothing to sneeze at. But it is encouraging that during a presidential election in which he had large coattails, the total number of votes he won by, 48,037, was the second slimmest margin he ever got. He's usually in the 60-80 thousand vote range, always receiving over, usually well over 100,000 votes.

Here are the numbers:

YEAR 2004	VICTORY MARGIN 48037	PER-CENT OF TOTAL VOTE 59%
2002	62275	68%
2000	80902	67%
1998	48482	64%
1996	67455	65%
1994	139841	100% (unopposed)
1992	54738	61%
1990	39430	62%
1988	160900	100% (unopposed)
1986	77434	75%
1984	115181	78%
1982	47523	65%

Mind you, last year Oxley recieved more votes than he ever has, 3,000 votes more than he got in 1988 when he ran unopposed.  Even a thousand more votes than he got in 1984 when he had Reagan's coattails and enjoyed the largest percentage of total votes cast in a competitive race, an awesome 78%.

BUT, and this is a big caveat, last year was the first time a Democratic challenger got more than 100,000 votes, and at 59%, Oakley had to count on massive voter turnout to win.  Even though he got more votes than he ever imagined, his percentage of victory was at its lowest.

If done right, starting right now, this district could turn blue, which is such a pretty color, don't you think?

UPDATE:  HYPOTHETICALLY SPEAKING tells us exactly why this is such great news.  The Democratic Party simply cannot let this opportunity slip away.